Panel 5- Crisis, Security, and State Stability

My second panel at my first MACLAS conference impressed upon me the diversity of interests and subject matters addressed by this group of academics and intellectuals. This panel felt familiar to me and my International Relations background with its focus on economic and political issues and security. The discussion on the impacts of the US economic crisis in Latin America fit well with the issues of drug trade, military rule, and the power of non-state groups against the state. All seem to break down, as one audience member pointed out, to issues of supply and demand.
Carolyn Bell pointed to the impending problems for oil producing countries which spent their windfalls, when prices were high, on programs and projects and will be left without savings as prices have contracted. She also adressed the delayed contraction of the commodities market in Latin America, the influence of the shrinking credit market on heavy borrowers in Latin America, and the new situations that are expected to arise from this crisis. States may turn inward as a process of de-globalization is seen- an interesting counter-balance to the issues of globalization presented in my last panel. Both traditional and non-traditional security issues were brought up by Jorge Ortiz Sotelo, who addressed martime border issues, drug trafficking, and poverty. Lezlie Shackell explored how social benefits provided by a military contrasted against an ineffective and corrupt government could lead to a popular supported military coup in the year 2000.
In this panel I had the pleasure of experiencing, for the first time in my four years here, the antics of Prof. Grayson. These included a large statue of the saint of the drug lords and stories about his tenure as a lawyer. Couched within all the name-dropping, was the idea that Mexico is not yet a failed state, but experiencing a period of dual-sovereignity between the state and the drug cartels. If the PRI comes out on top in the next election, there could be a re-alignment toward the side of the cartels, but in this case, perhaps atleast the situation of bribes and violence would be easier to navigate and would be governed by some level of rules.
The current involvement of Peru's Shining Path in drug trafficking was addressed by Daniel Masterson, along with the movement's history. Included in this history was Shining Path's self-identification as a peasant movement and subsequent defeat by armed peasant brigades, and self-identification as a Maoist movement and subsequent break with Maoist tactics. Both Prof. Grayson and Prof. Bell's presentations hold foreboding connections in regards to this topic, as Prof. Masterson posited that an economic decline could lead to the re-emegence of Shining Path and strengthen its drug-connected activities.